Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea

Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.

Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading

The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.

Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.

Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.

Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.

The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero

Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?

Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.

Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.

(责任编辑：汇率)

• ·火币矿机
• ·欧亿apk安卓版v6.5.0下载地址-芝麻交易所交易所app下载安卓版2023
• ·火币以太经典
• ·app下载安卓版官方 meme币最新版下载安卓版5.3.22
• ·实际缴纳的增值税怎么计算
• ·10月31日汇添富创新增长一年定开混合C净值下跌0.27%，近1个月累计下跌1.74%
• ·年底应交税金结转分录怎么写
• ·威派格收盘涨6.68%，主力资金净流入2305.82万元
• ·火币交易版苹果
• ·try什么货币
• ·股票佣金包含什么-股票佣金包含什么费用
• ·好享贷额度能否多次使用？
• ·比特币行情桌面-比特币行情桌面悬浮窗
• ·平安保险理赔需要多久到账？
• ·美国游客在伦敦遭遇假Uber司机盗窃，损失价值超12万美元加密货币
• ·10月31日前海联合泓鑫混合A净值下跌0.30%，近1个月累计下跌2.15%